Gestão da dívida pública e da liquidez no Brasil: complementariedade institucional e a dinâmica da dívida bruta e da dívida mobiliária
Luís Carlos G. de Magalhães
José Luis Oreiro
Kolaï Z. J. Yannic
Carla C. R. Araújo
Resumo
O artigo apresenta evidências sobre os determinantes da evolução da Dívida Bru-ta do Governo em Geral (DBGG) e da Dívida Pública Mobiliária Federal (DPMFi), princi-pal componente da (DBGG), entre 2011 e 2019. Essa dinâmica ocorreu predominantemen-te pela incorporação do serviço de juros mesmo quando o resgate de títulos foi superior à emissão de títulos e se obteve superávit primário. Paradoxalmente, o crescimento do esto-que da DPMFi ocorreu conjuntamente com a expansão contínua das disponibilidades da Conta Única do Tesouro no Banco Central. Essa expansão se deu independentemente do re-sultado primário apurado no período considerado. As evidências sugerem ainda que o uso dessas disponibilidades para acelerar o resgate de DPMFi foi limitado pelo controle da li-quidez necessário para manter a taxa Selic num patamar estruturalmente elevado para a ob-tenção da meta de inflação. Isso implicou na expansão das operações compromissadas que, por sua vez, também elevavam o serviço de juros. As relações entre a gestão da dívida pú-blica e o controle da liquidez sugerem que o atual arranjo institucional apresenta comple-mentariedades que ampliam o custo fiscal para o Tesouro Nacional.PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Dívida pública; taxa de juros; sustentabilidade fiscal.
Abstract
The article initially presents evidence about the growth dynamics of DPMFi, the main component of DBGG, between 2011 and 2019. This dynamic occurred predominantly by the incorporation of the interest rate service even when the redemption of securities was higher than the issuance of securities and a primary surplus was obtained. Paradoxically, the growth of the stock dd DPMFi occurred jointly with the continuous expansion of the money value held as bank deposits in the Single Treasury Account at the Central Bank This expan-sion took place independent of the primary result obtained in the period considered. The ev-idence also suggests that the use of these funds of the Single Treasury Account to accelerate the rescue of DPMFi was limited by the control of the liquidity necessary to keep the Selic rate at a structurally high level, which proved necessary to achieve the inflation target. This implied the expansion of REPO operations, which, in turn, also increased the interest rate service.KEYWORDS: Public debt; interest rate; fiscal sustainability. JEL Classification: E52; E63; H6.1. INTRODUCTIONThe resolution of the Brazilian fiscal crisis has been centred on the debate on the adjustment of primary public sector expenditures (Almeida, 2015; Pires and Borges, 2016; Almeida, Lisboa and Pessoa, 2015). This centrality is justified by the tendency for these expenditures to expand above GDP growth, mainly due to the progressive implementation of social rights provided for in the Federal Constitution of 1988.1 Therefore, these expenditures would grow at rates higher than the capac-ity to increase tax revenue, which would make it the intertemporal trajectory of public debt is unsustainable. The dominant economic policy prescription for this situation is the “structural” fiscal adjustment of primary expenditures, in order to reduce them as a proportion of GDP (Almeida, Lisboa and Pessoa, 2015). This diagnosis supported the approval of Constitutional Amendment No. 95, of 2016, which established the “spending ceiling” as a fiscal rule, which would guarantee the reduction of primary expenditure as a proportion of GDP throughout its term, due to the correction only by the inflation of these expenditures, while the na-tional income would increase by the nominal variation plus the real growth of the GDP. However, the debate on the “structural” adjustment, made from the exclusive point of view of primary expenditures, touches on or avoids the issue of the fiscal cost with the interest service of the Gross Government Debt in General (GGGD) 1 For a recent discussion of the evolution of primary expenditures, see Pires and Borges (2019). These authors point out that the growth in primary expenditures occurred mainly due to the impact of the increase in the minimum wage on social security spending. For a comparative analysis of the empirical results of different metrics of primary expenditures in the Brazilian case, see Magalhães and Costa (2018).
Leia o artigo completo:
Deixe um comentário